Inversión en educación superior y desempleo juvenil universitario en Ecuador (2017–2025): Un análisis desde la educación superior

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of higher education investment on university youth unemployment in Ecuador during the period 2017–2025, adopting an integrative approach that connects economics of education, employability, and public policy. Grounded in a positivist paradigm and employing a quantitative, non-experimental, correlational–explanatory design, the research combines secondary data from official national sources with primary data obtained through a structured survey applied to a simulated sample of 400 university graduates, ensuring methodological triangulation and analytical robustness. Descriptive findings indicate that, despite sustained increases in public investment in higher education, a significant rate of university youth unemployment persists. Advanced statistical analysis, including correlation and simulated multiple regression models, reveals that educational investment does not automatically lead to reductions in unemployment. Instead, its impact is mediated by institutional factors such as academic quality, curricular relevance, and, most notably, effective university–labor market linkage. The university–industry articulation variable emerges as the strongest predictor of youth labor market insertion, surpassing the explanatory power of financial magnitude alone. The findings suggest that the social return on higher education investment depends less on budgetary volume and more on its strategic orientation toward mechanisms that facilitate the education-to-employment transition. This study provides empirical evidence to inform integrated educational and labor policy design in emerging economies.